Each month on Behind the Numbers – Property Wrap, I sit down with some of the most experienced minds in the industry to decode what’s really going on in the housing market. This month, I was joined by economist Cameron Kusher, now part of the REIP Commentary team, and leading buyer’s advocate Cate Bakos.
Cameron began with a broad overview of the national market. While house prices are still rising across most capitals, the rate and rhythm of growth is far from uniform. Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide continue to lead, largely due to a mix of affordability, high population growth, and constrained supply. In contrast, activity in inner and middle-ring suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne remains more subdued.
What’s interesting — and important — is what’s happening on the fringes. As affordability pressures increase, we’re seeing more and more buyers push out to outer suburbs and regional growth corridors. These areas, once considered too far from the action, are now hubs of renewed interest, especially from first-home buyers and investors looking for value. Cameron noted this shift is also being fuelled by better infrastructure, flexible working options, and lifestyle appeal.
Listings are still below the five-year average in most capital cities, which is keeping pressure on prices. Cameron explained that many potential vendors are staying put — cautious about where they’ll go next or holding tight in a higher interest rate environment. This limited supply means the properties that do hit the market often attract strong competition.
Interest rates are still casting a long shadow over buyer confidence. Even with expectations of a rate cut later this year or early next, Cameron cautioned against hoping for a return to 2 per cent rates. “The neutral rate is likely to sit around 3.5 per cent,” he told me, which means we’re operating in a fundamentally different financial environment than a few years ago.
Brisbane remains a standout performer. Its affordability compared to Sydney and Melbourne, combined with a growing population, continues to make it an attractive destination. In the regions, Cameron observed a pick-up in areas like the Sunshine Coast, Geelong, and parts of NSW where lifestyle and relative value intersect.
Auction activity this month has increased, with higher volumes being tested across several markets. Clearance rates are sitting in the mid-60s to low-70s — not booming, but steady enough to indicate buyer confidence is holding. This is particularly true in markets where choice is tight and competition is quietly fierce.
The rental market remains tight, with vacancy rates continuing to sit low. Rents are rising, and that’s bringing investors back into the game. Cameron pointed to early signs of investor re-engagement, particularly in areas where rental yields remain attractive and supply remains constrained.
New builds are another pressure point. While we all know more housing is needed, the pipeline isn’t moving quickly enough. Construction costs, labour shortages, and planning delays are still dragging down momentum — and unless this changes, the supply problem will only deepen.
First-home buyers, though, are still out there — and they’re adapting. Cameron described them as pragmatic: adjusting expectations, shifting focus to more affordable pockets, and moving further out to get a foothold in the market. They’re playing the long game, and it’s showing up in the numbers.
Following Cameron’s national snapshot, Cate Bakos brought her sharp, on-the-ground perspective. She spoke of a noticeable surge in both buyer and investor activity — not driven by panic or fear of missing out, but by smart, strategic decision-making. People are stepping off the sidelines and acting, aware that the longer they wait, the harder it may be to catch the wave.
Cate believes the current price growth is sustainable. “We’re not seeing exuberance or dangerous borrowing patterns,” she explained. “This is growth based on genuine demand and a shortage of stock — not speculative heat.” Her view is that unless we see a serious and sustained rise in listings, we’ll continue to see upward pressure on prices.
For those heading to auction, Cate’s advice is crystal clear: do your homework, understand the property’s value, and know your limits. “You don’t have to win every auction,” she told me. “You just need to win the right one — and be ready when it happens.”
She also shared guidance for first-home buyers, encouraging them not to be discouraged by competition. Confidence and preparation matter more than bravado. And in this market, it’s not always the loudest bidder who walks away with the keys.
We also spoke about an interesting new trend: investor activity coming from Perth. Cate has observed more buyers from the west diversifying into the east coast, and even moving capital from shares into property. “There’s a sense that bricks-and-mortar feels safer and more predictable right now,” she said — a sentiment that seems to be growing among everyday investors.
What’s clear from both conversations is that the Australian property market continues to evolve. It may not be soaring, but it’s anything but stagnant. Buyers are coming back with more clarity, more strategy, and more confidence. And in a market like this, that’s exactly what makes the difference.