On this month’s Behind the Numbers, I sat down with economist Cameron Kusher and buyers’ advocate Cate Bakos. During our conversation about what’s really happening across the property market from price movements to buyer behaviour we also found ourselves confronting a deeper issue. A topic that doesn’t always make headlines, but one that underpins every part of the market: Australia’s ongoing failure to build enough homes. Not just a supply chain problem. Not just a labour issue. But a structural, systemic challenge that’s been decades in the making and one that’s now reaching crisis point.
I do believe that this conversation is being underestimated and under led. Australia is simply not building enough homes, knowing it is not the same as responding with the urgency it demands.
The Numbers Should Alarm Us
In our conversation Cameron shared that just 177,000 homes were completed last year a far cry from the 240,000 a year required to meet the government’s 1.2 million homes by 2029 target. And last month a leaked document confirmed that we were not going to meet our building targets.
And for every year we don’t, the gap isn’t shrinking, it is widening. And every month that slips by adds pressure to buyers, renters, and investors alike.
As Cate Bakos put it, “We’re not just talking about affordability we’re talking about housing as a right. And when the numbers don’t stack up, we lose more than property. We lose stability.”
This Is More Than a Market Problem
Housing is foundational. It underpins health, education, employment, and community. When we don’t have enough homes, or the right kinds of homes, the cracks start to show everywhere.
We see it in families living in overcrowded rentals. In single parents who can’t secure a lease. In essential workers commuting hours each way. In young people delaying independence. And yes we see it in the headlines, masked as rising prices, rental spikes, and investor uncertainty.
But behind the data are people. And behind the slow response are systems and leaders who are slow to act.
This isn’t just about the property industry. It’s a call to everyone shaping the policies, investments, and infrastructure of our cities and regions.
A Gaping Hole: The Decline of Social Housing
One of the most sobering points in our discussion came from Cameron, who reminded us that the social housing gap didn’t happen by accident it was a policy decision.
In the 1980s, Australian governments actively chose to step back from building public housing at scale. They shifted the responsibility onto private investors, offering tax incentives like negative gearing to fill the void. And for a time, that model worked.
But we’re now seeing the cracks.
Social and affordable housing stock has not kept pace with population growth. Waiting lists are stretching into years. And vulnerable Australians like women fleeing violence, pensioners, people living with disabilities are left in a rental market that was never designed to support them.
And as Cameron put it, unless governments recommit to building public housing and treat it as core infrastructure, we will continue to fail those who need shelter most.
Why Investors Are Stepping Away
Another clear signal from our conversation was this: investors are losing faith.
In states like Victoria, a perfect storm of tax changes, compliance burdens, and strict rental regulations are pushing investors out of the market. And yet, these are the same people we rely on to supply much of our rental housing.
AS we discussed with Cate, “Investors don’t act out of altruism” and nor should they. When the numbers stop stacking up, they’ll find another asset class and we’re already seeing that happen.
Without investors, we don’t just lose rental properties. We lose affordability, flexibility, and options for everyday Australians.
The Tax Conversation We Must Stop Avoiding
So where does that leave us? Caught between governments that aren’t building enough, private investors who are slowly walking away and a building supply chain that is not meeting demands.
Cameron feels we need robust conversations around tax reform, the most popular conversations have been around scrapping tax incentives, however without broader structural reform, it would do more harm than good. Cate echoed this “We either reimagine the system or we drive investors out completely. There’s no middle ground.”
Negative gearing isn’t the villain. It’s a tool one that’s been over-politicised and misunderstood. If governments truly want to rebalance the housing market, they need to lead a full-scale overhaul not a piecemeal band-aid.
Where to From Here?
As leaders whether we’re in housing, politics, business, or advocacy we are responsible not only for understanding the numbers, but for doing something with them.
We must lead with eyes open and sleeves rolled up.
That starts with listening really listening to conversations like the one I had with Cate and Cameron. To the experiences of renters, builders, buyers, and frontline agents. To the people waiting, struggling, compromising because supply hasn’t kept up and leadership hasn’t stepped in.
We have a window of opportunity before this crisis deepens into something far more permanent. Unless Government and private sector work together to come up with viable solutions, I do feel we are heading into the perfect storm with the current environment on the issue of housing.